Nigeria 2023 Governor Elections Live Results

In a perfect world, a governorship candidate would be as popular as a presidential candidate. As in, if a presidential candidate got 45% of the vote, then the governorship candidate in the same party would get the same (or similar) percentage of the vote a few weeks later.

However, this often does not happen for various reasons: Some states could have a zoning 'agreement' that the governorship candidate does not adhere to, leading to a loss of support. There could be significant electoral malpractice like rigging, voter suppression and vote buying. The governorship candidate may also just be more (or less) popular compared to the presidential candidate.

Separating these effects requires a solid knowledge of dynamics and preferences in the state concerned. After all, politics is local. 

For our first example, let us look at Oyo State, where the PDP candidate Atiku Abubakar contested against Bola Tinubu of the APC. 

Seyi Makinde, governor of the state, was part of a group of five PDP governors opposed to Atiku's candidacy, fuelling Atiku's poor performance in the state, where Bola Tinubu got 56% of the vote.

During the governorship elections, the dynamic flipped. Makinde, viewed as having done well in his first term, was rewarded at the ballot box. The PDP got 66% of the vote, over 40 points higher than in the presidential election.

This example shows how the interactions between the perception of a candidate's performance and ethnic considerations can produce sharply different electoral outcomes for political parties.